Analysts eChina crude oil contractxpect the surge in US production will begin to offset OPEC-led efforts to cut production. OPEC and some non-OPEC oil-producing countries started to jointly reduce production in 207, which pushed oil prices to rise sharply in the first half of this year.
As of press time, US crude oil futures fell slightly by 0.09% to US$65 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 0.20% to US$754 per barrel. The June Brent crude oil contract expires on Monday, April 0, and the settlement price rose by US$0.5 to US$77.
Regarding this agreement, Saudi Arabia's determination to reduce production seems relatively clear, but other OPEC members still want to ignore the agreement to increase production. There is a historical basis for this. This situation occurred many times in the 1980s, and other member states failed to reduce production even before the end of the agreement.
On June 22, the 74th OPEC General Assembly will be held in Vienna. At that time, the Vienna Union of OPEC and Russia and other oil producing countries will reassess the oil market and make corresponding policy adjustments.
OPEC’s monthly survey showed that OPEC production in May fell by 70,000 barrels per day to 2 million barrels per day. This was due to the power outage in Nigeria and the continuous decline in Venezuela’s production, which caused OPEC crude oil production to fall to the level since April 207. The lowest level.
Morgan Stanley pointed out in a research report that political and economic events may reshape the oil market for a long time, and the uncertainty surrounding the balancChina crude oil contracte of global supply and demand is almost growing. Before the sanctions were imposed on Iran, the crude oil exports of several other OPEC member countries increased sharply, and these effects are putting pressure on oil prices. The market will be in trouble in the next two months, and the decline in Iranian crude oil exports will become a reality. Oil prices are expected to reach $85 by the end of the year
The Iran nuclear agreement has reserved a dispute coordination mechanism. If Iran files a complaint on this basis, it may at least indicate that Iran does not intend to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement immediately. The International Committee for Supervision and Verification of the Iran Nuclear Agreement will bring all the signatories of Six Plus One together to discuss ways to escape the crisis. In this case, the three arbitrators on the committee will negotiate with the parties within two months. Later, Iran may make another decision.
Willis pointed out that if tariffs are a long-standing issue, it will be difficult for the United States to find a market as large as that. However, looking for alternative suppliers is not a problem. Sources at Sinopec’s refineries said that because US crude oil has entered the market for a relatively short period of time, it can be replaced by North Sea-grade crude oil such as Fortis, Middle Eastern crude oil or Russian Ural crude oil.
OPEC's idle capacity has continued to decline in the past two months, and currently only 2.85 million barrels per day. If OPEC continues to increase production by 0 million barrels per day, then the idle capacity will drop to less than 2 million barrels per day. From the perspective of the distribution of spare capacity, the increase in OPEC countries' production mainly depends on the increase in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi side currently has only 600,000 barrels/day of production capacity left.
Japan, which has always been respectful to the United States, also said that it will continue to import Iranian oil. On the 5th, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono held talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif while attending a series of ASEAN foreign ministers’ meetings in Singapore. Kono said that Iran plays a very important role in maintaining stability in the Middle East. Regarding the US request that countries stop importing Iranian crude oil after the 4th, Kono emphasized that he will negotiate with the US and that Japan will continue to import Iranian crude oil in the future.