Goldman Sachs believes that the US ban on Iranian oil exports will cause oil prices to rise. However, OPEC and Russia and other non-OPEC oil-producing countries will decide in June this year whether to extend the original half-year production reductiBrent Crude Oil Marketon agreement to the second half of the year. If Russia starts to increase production after June, it will cause oil prices to fall. Therefore, the international Volatility in oil prices may increase.
According to data, the average daily crude oil exports of the United States will reach 5 million barrels by 202, and the current average daily crude oil exports will reach 2.6 million barrels. The International Energy Agency predicts that 80% of the global crude oil supply increase in the next 0 years will come from the United States.
On the supply side, the International Energy Agency has increased its crude oil production growth forecast for non-OPEC member countries in 208 by 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected that the production growth rate in 209 will be 700,000 barrels per day. According to the agency, most of the increase in crude oil production in non-OPEC member countries is due to crude oil production in the United States.
Tomorrow, representatives of OPEC member states will gather in Vienna for a meeting. In the face of the huge crude oil supply gap created by the United States in the Middle East, whether OPEC will choose to increase or reduce production has become the focus of attention, and these two results also happen to be at present. There are differences within OPEC. Some countries have already released a clear intention to increase production, but some countries believe that maintaining production cuts is the best option. Because there is no clear direction, the crude oil price has been hovering in a low range these days. At the same time, it was supposed that this week's two major inventory data API and EIA could break the deadlock, but I did not expect that the two inventory data had mixed performances, allowing crude oil prices to return to a shock pattern after a brief fluctuation. So can the OPEC meeting of tomorrow bring the market's expected results?
According to Zanganeh, rising oil prices boosted the U.S. economy and employment, and increased U.S. government taxes. Iran has become a country that wants the oil market to remain moderate. The prime minister said on Sunday that the moderate price is between US$60 and US$65 per barrel, which is lower than the US$80 that Saudi Arabia hopes.
Oil price trend analysis-oil prices bottomed out during the white trading session on Thursday. After the US election dust settled, the market focus returned to OPEC's production reduction agreement and oil market supply and demand fundamentals. Yesterday's US election can be said to have affected the whole body, and oil prices are mixed Stimulated by long and short factors, it experienced a round of roller coaster market. The daily bottom rebounded and finally the double bottom formed by the sun also established the short-term price trend pattern. After the opening of the morning, the price stabilized MA5 daily moving average online testing MA0 dailBrent Crude Oil Markety moving average 46 US dollars /Barrel line, the current need to pay attention to the break of this line, if the price goes through this line, it will continue to test the 46-47 line; if the price does not break this line of resistance, it will face a fall. The bottom is still concerned about the 45-46 line support. Before the lack of further data event stimulus, intraday short-term operations can be maintained in this range, and the upward and downward breaks can follow the trend.